(1) Stablecoins will grow from $240B to $480B by Dec 31, 2026.
Data: (1) Stablecoin Metrics | Stablewatch (2) Llama Stablecoins (3) Artemis Stablecoins (4) Lending Market Size (5) Global M2 (6) MacroMicro Cross Country Indicators (7) MacroMicro M2 Time Series (8) CEIC M2 Money Supply
Prediction: Stablecoins will grow from $240B to $480B by Dec 31, 2026. Stablecoins are an overall macro tailwind so we can express our view around stablecoins through tokens (e.g. Morpho, Euler, Kamino), stocks (e.g. Remitly, Western Union, Paypal) and even ecosystems (e.g. EVM, SVM). Changes in the outstanding stock of stablecoins impact most of our models and assumptions around the growth of the Internet Financial System.
Stablecoins have grown from <$1M in Dec ‘20 to $140B in Dec ‘22 to $200B in Dec ‘24 to $240B.
Exhibit A: Stablecoins as a % of M2
We plan to forecast stablecoin adoption through the Many Models approach central to Theia’s forecasting practice. We examine four model cases around stablecoin adoption:
TAM / SAM / S-Curve Model. In the first case, we examine stablecoin adoption through a standard S-Curve. We assume stablecoin adoption entered its S-Curve period in 2023 and is currently undergoing its fastest period of adoption. This model has an aggressive bias because it applies S-Curve growth to a stock of speculative stablecoins that are not likely to grow exponentially over the next few years (although they may grow super-linearly).
Linear Growth. In this case, we have not yet entered the typical S-Curve pattern for stablecoin growth and use a standard linear extrapolation of the most recent 6,12, and 18-month periods for growth. This model is definitely conservative in the long-term (as it doesn’t even reach the full SAM over 20 years) but may be a helpful model over the next 18 months.
Hybrid Model. In this case, we keep our assumptions around S-Curve adoption but segment the existing stock of stablecoins between speculators (60%) and technology adoption (40%). We assume the speculative stock of stablecoins grows linearly and only apply the S-curve model to the technology adoption stock. This is likely the most accurate model, and this is the model we use to run sensitivities on different Serviceable Addressable Markets as this is a critical input into the growth trajectory.
Ensemble Model. See below for our Ensemble Weights.
| Model | Weight |
|---|---|
| TAM / SAM / S-Curve Model | 20% |
| Linear Growth | 10% |
| Hybrid Model (1T SAM) | 20% |
| Hybrid Model (2.7T SAM) | 30% |
| Hybrid Model (5T SAM) | 20% |
| Total | 100% |
See below for the output of our Stablecoin Ensemble Model:
| Date | Expected Value | TAM/SAM | Linear | SAM: $1T | SAM: $2.7T | SAM: $5T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 314B | 307B | 263B | 324B | 324B | 324B |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 394B | 384B | 273B | 414B | 414B | 414B |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 481B | 477B | 284B | 510B | 510B | 510B |
| Dec 31, 2027 | 679B | 707B | 306B | 725B | 725B | 725B |
Consider the expected value column for our predictions. These are point estimates and have natural variability around them. We propose the 70% Brier Sets below. These are all wide ranges given the inherent uncertainty in the question. It is hard to estimate precise growth rates during the exponential phase of growth.